RFA's BOS should sign, and for how much based on updated projections

(Photo Credit: Steve Babineau / Getty Images)

With the NHL salary cap expected to increase to $95,500,000 for the 2025-2026 season, the Boston Bruins are projected to have $28,818,333 in available cap space.

How much money will be allocated to resigning their own restricted free agents, and how much will be spent signing free agents on the open market?

Well, that remains to be seen.

Fortunately, however, thanks to the hard work of AFP Analytics , we now know the projected contracts of all NHL RFA's and UFA's heading into the summer of 2025.

This of course, includes the Bruins RFA's.

So, let's take a look at what AFP Analytics has in mind, and based off of that, determine which players make sense to resign, and maybe which not to.

Here are the projections for Bruins RFA's:

Morgan Geekie - 4 years, $6.5M

At first glance, the Geekie projection makes more sense to me if he were a UFA on the open market - not as an RFA under team control. I'm a fan of the player and would like him in the mix going forward - but not at $6.5M. The cap will continue to rise and that's great, but for me, I'd like to see the Bruins not handcuff themselves financially with a few high end UFA's available this summer. Ultimately, I believe this projection to be a bit high compared to what he will sign for in Boston - which realistically i'm hoping is around $5M - $5.75M.

Prediction: 4 years, $5.25M

Mason Lohrei - (LT) 6 years, $5.4M -  (ST) 2 years, $3M

There were a handful of players out of nearly 400 that AFP Analytics offered both long term, and short term projections. Lohrei was one of those individuals. Unfortunately, my squirrel brain initially only read the long term projection of 6 years, at $5.4M - to which I thought "Absolutely not." Lohrei is young, and clearly has great offensive attributes and upside. But defensively he has a lot to prove. Which is why I gave a great big "ahhhhh, i'm an idiot" once I noticed his short term projection of 2 years, at $3M. That's what the kids call a bridge deal, which is exactly what I had in mind for Lohrei. This short term projection makes more sense to me - though $3M is still a bit much for my liking. Despite Lohrei's ability to transition the puck and provide offense from the back end, he was still a league-worst -43. He'll get a nice raise from his entry-level contract of $925K AAV, but it shouldn't be a jump to $3M.

Prediction: 2 years, $2.5M

John Beecher - 2 years, $1.5M

Beecher is a player that in my opinion hasn't earned a raise from his ELC of $925K to this projection of $1.5M - even though it's not an astronomical amount of money relatively speaking. Beecher had just 1 goal in his final 73 GP this past season. Is he meant to be a scorer? No. Should he chip in more than 11 points in 78 GP? Absolutely. Boston may also need to save every penny they can this summer to acquire any impact UFA's they desire. Personally, I wouldn't offer Beecher more than 2 years, at $975K, but given the two year tag, I feel like the Bruins would increase to a solid $1M - which if you keep reading, i'm not sure i'm doing that.

Prediction: 2 years, $1M

Jakub Lauko - 1 year, $1.17M

I have no issue here. Of course your knee-jerk reaction will usually be to want a contract projection to be a little less when doing some offseason cap crunching - but Lauko is a good solider, a relentless worker, and admired teammate. If he's healthy, he's capable of chipping in 20 points in a full season if all goes right - all while bringing consistent energy. This would be a nice bump in AAV from $787.5K.

Prediction: 1 year, $1.17M

Marat Khusnutdinov - 2 years, $924K

This one is a no-brainer. No notes. Khusnutdinov has youth, speed, skill, and documented leadership qualities. Give him a 2 year bridge deal to prove himself at less than $1M AAV? Where's the issue? There isn't one.

Prediction: 2 years, $924K

Alright, so now let's add it up.

If the Bruins were to sign all of these players at AFP's projections (using Lohrei's short term projection) Boston would be left with $15.7M in cap space for UFA's.

If the Bruins were to sign all of these players at my predictions, Boston would be left with $17.9M in cap space.

I'd still like Boston with a little more cap space. If all my predictions were accurate, i'd like Geekie, Lohrei, Lauko, and Khusnutdinov at those contracts. Beecher and his $1M cap hit may make him the odd contract out to accumulate $18.9M in cap space for UFA spending.

Of course, there are other mechanisms for Boston to free up cap space via trade etc. but for this exercise we'll keep it simply to BOS RFA's.

So, in conclusion.

NHL Salary Cap = $95,500,000

(Minus) Bruins contracted salaries of $66,681,667

Bruins Cap Space remaining = $28,818,333

(Minus) Morgan Geekie = $5.25M

(Minus) Mason Lohrei = $2.5M

(Minus) Jakub Lauko = $1.17M

(Minus) Marat Khusnutdinov = $924K

Bruins Salary Cap remaining for UFA spending = $18.9M

Now, look. Am I an expert in contract predictions? No. In fact, AFP Analytics is, so i'd go with them on these! But, based on their projections Boston simply wouldn't be signing all of their RFA's because there's no chance they'll have a UFA allowance of just $15.7M.

I envision them setting aside somewhere between $17.5M-$19.5M for UFA spending which is why maybe my predictions may be low and "wishful" thinking, but i'm trying to get them to where I think they'll want to be in UFA allowance while still retaining most if not all of their RFA's.

Anyway, stay tuned for an article this summer when we here at The PuckUps try to piece together one or two different UFA classes for BOS depending on which lead UFA they end up getting, and then going from there.